Research
Notes on markets, cycles, and the thinking behind INVasset's quant-driven approach.
China is steadily reducing exposure to US Treasuries while increasing gold and hard-asset reserves. This controlled diversification reflects geopolitical risk management and a gradual shift toward a multi-reserve global monetary framework.
Continue readingUS copper inventories have surged to record levels, driven by anticipatory imports, tariff fears, and strategic positioning. With supply inelastic and electrification demand rising, stockpiling reflects preparation for potential structural shortages—not oversupply.
Continue readingGlobal manufacturing is entering Supply Chains 2.0, driven by friend-shoring, localisation, and automation. Capital is concentrating in strategic economies with scale and policy stability, positioning countries like India as key beneficiaries of the next decade-long industrial cycle.
Continue readingThe yen carry trade has evolved from a niche strategy into a systemic funding pillar for global markets. With Japan’s inflation data and BOJ policy shaping expectations, even small shifts in yen volatility can ripple across equities, EM flows, rates, and commodities.
Continue readingSouth Korea’s rally is being driven by record capital inflows and the AI-led semiconductor supercycle. Strong earnings upgrades, concentrated leadership in memory giants, and synchronized global positioning suggest structural momentum rather than a short-term spike.
Continue readingThe 2022 nickel squeeze exposed how leverage and thin liquidity can overpower fundamentals. As short covering met vanishing sellers, prices spiked above $100,000/tonne, forcing the LME to halt trading and cancel trades—revealing structural fragility in commodity markets.
Continue readingChina now absorbs ~21% of Latin America’s exports (~$180B annually), surpassing the US and EU. Anchored in resources and reinforced by infrastructure, this corridor is structurally redrawing commodity pricing power, supply chains, and geopolitical leverage.
Continue readingDespite renewed Middle East tensions, Brent remains range-bound as spare capacity, diversified supply, stable inventories, and coordinated production cap panic. Markets now price resilience over fear, keeping oil volatility episodic rather than structural.
Continue readingSilver markets show early squeeze signals as China inventories drop ~90%, export controls tighten, and COMEX registered stocks stay thin. With industrial demand firm and relief valves weakening, structural supply stress is building beneath calm prices.
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